Ishighoilpricestillaproblem？

Manypeoplethoughttheproblemofhighoilpricesshouldhavegoneawaybynow。Eitherareductionintheterrorismpremium，awithdrawalofspeculativemoney，aslowdowninChinesedemandoranincreaseinOpecproductionshouldhavereducedthecrudepricetomorenormallevels。

ButhereweareagainwithUScrudeoilfuturesnudging$53abarrel。AdnanShihab－Eldin，Opec‘sactingsecretary－general，evensaidyesterdaythatthepricecouldhit$80ifamajorsupplydisruptionweretooccur。

TherecentspikehasbeenassociatedwithcoldweatherinEuropeandtheUSnorth－east，andsomebriefdisruptionsatUSrefineriesyesterday。GasolinepricesalsosurgedtoarecordhighonWednesdayaftersomedisappointingUSinventorynumbers。

ButJeffreyCurrie，theGoldmanSachsanalyst，saysthespikehasitsoriginsintherecentimprovementineconomicdatawhichsawthegloballeadingindicatorturnupforthefirsttimein10months。Thatbroughtspeculativeinterestbackintomanycommodityprices。

Curriesaysmanyspeculatorshadgotoutofcommoditypositionsinthethirdandfourthquartersof2004andwereshortearlythisyear。Thechangeintheirpositionquicklyadded$3－$4abarreltothecrudeprice。

AlthoughOpecmightbetemptedtoincreaseproduction，Curriesaystheoilpriceismoreofarefineryproblemthanaproductionproblem。RefinerieslacktheexcesscapacitytoabsorbthekindofoilOpecproduces。

Ofparticularinteresttoinvestorswillbetheeffectofhigheroilonassetprices。Lastyear，spikesinoilpricescoincidedwithfallsinbondyields。Investorswereclearlyreasoningthatcrudewouldactasataxonconsumerdemand。Butthistimeround，thespikehasbeenaccompaniedbyajumpinUS10yearTreasurybondyieldsfrom4to4。4percent。

Perhapsinvestorshavedecidedthattheeconomyislessvulnerabletohighoilpricesthanitwasinthepast，giventhatlastyear‘s$50pluspeakwasaccompaniedbyrapidoutputgrowth。Orperhapsinvestorsarenowstartingtoworrythathighcommoditypricesmight，afterall，beasignofmoregeneralinflationarypressures。