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Ourworldofthemid－1990sfacespotentiallyburstingchange。Thequestionisinwhatdirectionwillittakeus？Willthechangecomefromworldwideinitiativesthatreversethedegradationoftheplanetandrestorehopeforthefuture，orwillitcomefromcontinuingenvironmentaldeteriorationthatleadstoeconomicdeclineandsocialinstability？

Thereisnoprecedentfortherapidsubstantialchangeweneedtomake。Buildinganenvironmentallysustainablefuturedependsonrestructuringtheglobaleconomy，majorshiftsinhumanreproductivebehavior，anddramaticchangesinvaluesandlifestyles。Doingallthisquicklyaddsuptoarevolutionthatisdrivenanddefinedbytheneedtorestoretheearth‘senvironmentalsystems。IfthisEnvironmentalRevolutionsucceeds，itwillrankwiththeAgriculturalandIndustrialRevolutionsasoneofthegreateconomicandsocialtransformationsinhumanhistory。

LiketheAgriculturalRevolution，itwilldramaticallyalterpopulationtrends。Whiletheformersetthestageforenormousincreasesinhumannumbers，thisrevolutionwillsucceedonlyifitstabilizeshumanpopulationsize，reestablishingabalancebetweenpeopleandnaturalsystemonwhichtheydepend。IncontrasttotheIndustrialRevolution，whichwasbasedonashifttofossilfuels，thisnewtransformationwillbebasedonashiftawayfromfossilfuels。

Thetwoearlierrevolutionsweredrivenbytechnologicaladvances－thefirstbythediscoveryoffarmingandthesecondbytheinventionofthesteamengine，whichconvertedtheenergyincoalintomechanicalpower。TheEnvironmentalRevolution，whileitwillobviouslyneednewtechnologies，willbedrivenprimarilybytherestructuringoftheglobaleconomysothatitdoesnotdestroyitsnaturalsupportsystem。

ThepaceoftheEnvironmentalRevolutionneedstobefarfasterthanthatofitspredecessors。TheAgriculturalRevolutionbegansome10，000yearsago，andtheIndustrialRevolutionhasbeenunderwayforabouttwocenturies。ButiftheEnvironmentalRevolutionistosucceed，itmustbecompressedintoafewdecades。ProgressintheAgriculturalRevolutionwasmeasuredalmostexclusivelyinthegrowthinfoodoutputthateventuallyenabledfarmerstoproduceasurplusthatcouldfeedcitydwellers。Similarly，industrialprogresswasgainedbysuccessinexpandingtheoutputofrawmaterialsandmanufacturedgoods。TheEnvironmentalRevolutionwillbejudgedbywhetheritcanshifttheworldeconomyintoanenvironmentallysustainabledevelopmentpath，onethatleadstogreatereconomicsecurity，healthierlifestyles，andaworldwideimprovementinthehumancondition。

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46。这种变化会来自要彻底扭转地球贫困化趋势、恢复未来希望的全球性进取心呢，还是由环境的不断恶化导致经济衰退和社会动荡所引发？

47。要缔造一个环境能持续支撑的未来，就必须调整世界经济，大力转变人类的繁衍行为，并根本改变价值观和生活方式。

48。农业革命为人口的大量增长预备了条件，而环境革命要获得成功，只有稳定住人口的规模，重建人类与其赖以生存的自然世界之间的协调关系。

49。前两次革命都是由技术的进步推动的：第一次是因为发现了农事，第二次是由于发明了蒸汽机，它能把煤里的能量转化成机械动力。

50。评价环境革命的标准就是看它能否使世界经济转变到在环境上可持续发展的道路上，亦即使经济有更大保障、使生活方式更加健康、使全球人类生活状况普遍改善的发展道路。