Acelebrationoffourexcellentyearsfortheworldeconomyandwarningsthatthegoodtimescouldendintears：thatsumsuptheviewsofRaghuramRajan，theInternationalMonetaryFund‘schiefeconomist。

SpeakingtotheFinancialTimesinLondonaheadoftheIMFandWorldBank‘‘sannualmeetinginSingaporethisweekendandwritingintoday‘snewspaper，MrRajanshowsthatthefundishappieraboutboththeunderpinningsoftheworldeconomyanditsprospects。

Aleakofthefund‘‘seconomicforecasts，publishedintheFTlastweek，showeditnowexpectsglobaleconomicgrowthof5。1percentin2006，comparedwithitspreviousforecastof4。8percentinApril。

ThesefiguresandMrRajan‘sthoughtswillbeconfirmedinthepublicationoftheIMF‘sWorldEconomicOutlooktoday。In2007thefundexpectsaslowingofadvancedeconomiesbutwithemergingcountriespoweringahead，theworldisstillsettogrowby4。9percent。

AnewconcernMrRajanexpressedwhiletalkingtotheFTFinancialTimes，wasthattheproductivitygainsthathaveunderpinnedtheworldeconomymightpeteroutasfreshpolicyreformsstall。

WhatIseenowistheurgencyforpolicyreformisrathermutedhesays。

MrRajandisagreeswiththegrowingvoicespredictingarecessionnextyear。Therisksaretwo－sidedhesays。InflationandaUSslowdownareriskstotheUS。Themillion－dollarquestioniswhethertheslowdownisenoughtoquelltheinflationarypressureorwhetheryouneedmoreraterises。

ButtheelephantintheroomasfarMrRajanisconcernedisstilltheyawningglobaltradeimbalancesthatresultinahugeUStradedeficitandcorrespondinglylargesurplusesinChina，oilexportersandJapan。

Forthepast18months，thefundhaswarnedofadisorderlyunwindingoftheseimbalances，involvingaslumpintheUSdollar，muchhigherglobalinterestratesandaglobalrecession，riskingchaosinfinancialmarketsandaresurgenceofprotectionism。

IthascalledontheUStoreduceitsbudgetdeficit，EuropeandJapantospeeddomesticeconomicreforms，Chinatoboostconsumptionandrevaluetherenminbi，andtherestofAsiatoincreaseinvestment。andgreaterexchangerateflexibilityinemergingAsia，aeuphemismforChineserevaluationoftherenmimbi。